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Signals

Real-time spread evaluations: Predict's SVI probability vs. Polymarket's order book.

Every 15s the bot prices each matched (oracle, strike) pair on both venues and records the disagreement here. Each row is a decision the bot made: filtered (didn't qualify), sub-threshold (spread too small), executed (placed a trade), or failed (tried to execute but the venue rejected). It's the strategy's audit trail.

  • The scatter below plots Polymarket probability (x) vs Predict probability (y). Points on the y=x line are venues in agreement; points off the line are where the spread lives.
  • Use the tabs top-right to filter to executed-only when checking what actually fired.
  • Failed rows carry a filter_reason like poly_thin_book or poly_maker_not_allowed — useful for debugging mainnet config.

Calibration scatter — Predict vs Polymarket probability

On the y=x line, both venues agree. Points off the line are where we trade. Color = action (green executed, gray filtered).

No signals yet — chart populates as the bot evaluates spreads.

Signal mix

No signals yet.

Signals — last 200

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TimeOracleStrikePredict↑Predict IVPoly YesPoly IVSpreadAction
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