Signals

Real-time spread evaluations: our SVI model probability vs the venue's tradeable quote — Polymarket's book in the V1 era, Predict's own board price on SVX V2 (rows tagged v2_board).

Each row compares our model price with the venue's tradeable quote at one strike and records the disagreement. Each row is an evaluation the bot made: filtered (didn't qualify), sub-threshold (spread too small), executed (placed a trade), or failed (venue rejected). Two eras share this stream: V1 rows priced Predict against Polymarket's book (idle since the July 26 redeployment — V2 expiries never align with Poly's), and v2_board rows price our surface against Predict's own board quote across every listed tenor — the exact input a V2 divergence strategy trades on.

The scatter below plots the venue quote (x) vs our model probability (y). Points on the y=x line are model and venue in agreement; points off the line are where the spread lives.
Use the tabs top-right to filter to executed-only when checking what actually fired.
Failed rows carry a filter_reason like poly_thin_book or poly_maker_not_allowed — useful for debugging mainnet config.

Calibration scatter — model vs venue quote

On the y=x line, both venues agree. Points off the line are where we trade. Color = action (green executed, gray filtered).

No signals yet — chart populates as the bot evaluates spreads.

Signal mix

No signals yet.

Signals — last 200

Showing all 0

Time	Oracle	Strike	Predict↑	Predict IV	Poly Yes	Poly IV	Spread	Action
No signals match this filter.